Scenarios are stories that consider “what if?” questions, and they are at the heart of our planning process. While forecasts focus on probabilities, scenarios consider a range of divergent, challenging, relevant, and plausible futures, and how these could develop from today’s realities.
SNAP develops the data and analysis tools to quantitatively look at how temperature, precipitation, or other conditions may vary at different points in the future. SNAP uses these tools, along with other data and stakeholder knowledge, to facilitate conversations about possible future conditions and choices. This process can be as casual as a conversation or presentation, but when it is most powerful is when it is part of an integrated scenarios planning process.
We work with an extensive network of collaborators and partners, and we are skilled at coordinating among these diverse groups to solve research and management problems. Here are a few examples of the way SNAP coordinates with diverse stakeholders:
- For the Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska and Northwest Canada project, SNAP is coordinating permafrost scientists, ecologists, modelers, and research managers to develop ecosystem models and associated products that can help resource managers make decisions in their changing regions.
- SNAP worked with the Alaska Region of the National Park Service to develop downscaled climate models for each of Alaska’s National Parks. These models, other data, and personal experiences were considered in a series of five scenarios planning workshops. SNAP and the NPS developed final workshop reports and a visitors guide to climate change in the Parks.
- SNAP also leverages its network to synthesize scientific findings, and has worked on several major reports including the National Climate Assessment, a report to the Alaska Governor’s Subcabinet on Climate Change, and the Integrated Arctic Management report to the President of the United States.
To learn more about these and the wide variety of coordination projects that SNAP has facilitated, visit our project section.