Explore temperature and precipitation projections for thousands of communities across Alaska and Canada. Or, return to the SNAP home page.
You can examine SNAP community outlooks for certain key changes and threshold values—for example, higher mean monthly temperatures in the spring and fall may be of particular interest. This could signify any or all of these conditions:
Warmer, drier spring weather may also be an indicator for increased fire risk. In many locations, winter temperatures are projected to increase dramatically. Warmer winters may favor growth of species that are less cold-hardy (including desirable crops and invasive species), or it may decrease snowpack and increase the frequency of rain-on-snow events that impact wildlife. Higher temperatures across all seasons will likely impact permafrost and land-fast ice. Learn more about how we derived the community climate outlooks
Data sources: historical PRISM climatology data and downscaled outputs averaged from five GCMs. Learn more about how we downscale climate data from global to regional scales.
We averaged results to smooth out short-term variability. Results are averaged across decades to lessen the influence of normal year-to-year climate variability on projected values. Averaging also tends to make overall projection trends clearer. Uncertainty is associated with each of these graphed values, and stems from:
Standard deviations for temperature and precipitation between the 5 models and averaged over space, time, and the 3 scenarios are relatively small, mostly due to the averaging across space:
Generally, precipitation is more uncertain than temperature. And, although our models project increases in precipitation, water availability may decrease in some areas due to longer growing seasons and warmer weather.
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The IPCC created scenarios to explore alternative futures. Scenarios cover a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces, and resulting greenhouse gas emissions.
Very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid–century, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, and a balance between fossil fuels and other energy sources.
High population growth, but slow economic development and slow technological change.
Same global population as A1B, but with faster changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy.
Model variability refers to the standard deviation (SD), which provides a measure of dispersion around the mean. The vertical bars represent the SD across the 5 models. Their lengths represent one SD above and below this value:
It is best to avoid drawing inferences from overlapping or non-overlapping bars. The only comparison to make is of their relative size, as it pertains to changes in the degree of agreement among the models.